Monday, December 17, 2007

conventional wisdom

Was there a pundit who, 3 months ago, called the race a dead heat in Iowa between Obama, Clinton and Edwards. and identified the rise of Huckabee? Do national polls matter?

Could it be that the Clinton strategy to run a "general election" campaign, rather than one for primaries was fatally flawed? Well, we'll finally begin to know soon, when people really vote.

And, don't forget, the polls are a little fickle in Iowa. Focus on who has a great organization and will deliver his/her voters to the caucuses. And, it does not necessarily mean that the candidate has a great organization. It could mean that supporters also have a great organization.

And, if you were advising candidates, what would your advice be? For Romney if he loses both Iowa and New Hampshire. For Thompson, if the same occurs plus South Carolina. For Rudy, if he does not do great in Florida. For McCain, if he does not win New Hampshire. Does everyone stay through Feb. 5?

On the Democrat side, Biden, Dodd and Richardson. When does it become appropriate to bow out. Or, is the conventional wisdom again wrong and one of them does well in Iowa and/or New Hampshire. And, what if Clinton doesn't win Iowa, New Hampshire or So, Carolina?

And, most importantly, why did both parties let 2 states, who are not in any way reflective of the general population, have this much power?

Posted at 2:19 PM

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